Thursday, March 17, 2011

Stanimal Goes Inside the Numbers: Advantage Vanderbilt

This was written by Stanimal, but due to work constraints, I am posting it for him.

Just so y'all know, in looking at the numbers, if we play according to our profile in Ken Pomeroy numbers, we should win this game. Concerns about our team's inability to guard the three point line are simply not supported by the numbers. Richmond is a solid three point shooting team, but our ability to guard the perimeter should counteract that aspect of their game. They are not very good at the areas we are weakest at (offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers).

Where we could easily slip up, however, is if we allow them to dictate the pace, and allow them to score efficiently. Richmond is very efficient on offense and they make the most of their baskets. While they probably won't "outshoot" us in terms of shots attempted, they do make the most of their shots. If this game slows to their pace, we will need to match and exceed their efficiency. Now, our offensive efficiency is good as well, but if we lay a massive shooting egg like we did against Florida, you can say hello to a first round exit. Additionally, I am very concerned about "playing to their pace". The reason is that we are horrible at forcing the issue because we simply don't force turnovers and don't steal the ball much. Therefore, in order to increase the pace of the game to where we want to play, we simply have to get out in transition off the rebound, something that may be tough to do against a team that scores efficiently like Richmond.

Something to note, however, is that it's kind of incredible how directly contradictory the ken pom numbers can be to the outcome of games in the tournament. For instance, Siena was one of the best teams at forcing steals and turnovers, but we didn't lose the game for that reason. We lost the game because we were horrible shooting the ball in 2008. We actually had 1 less steal AND 1 less turnover than Siena had. Therefore, even analysis of the metrics is subject to the madness of March. Of course, that's why the games are played.

1 comment:

Mrs. Stanimal said...

Insightful stanalysis.

Go Dores!