Monday, March 1, 2010

A Quick Glance at Vanderbilt's Tournament Resume

Vanderbilt Commodores (#13/#19)
Record: 21-6 (11-3 in SEC, 5-2 SEC Road Games)) (Chaminade game cannot be considered by the Selection Committee)
RPI: 16
SOS: 27
Ken Pom Ranking: 25
Against RPI 1-25: 2-2
Against RPI 26-50: 3-0
Against RPI 51-75: 2-2
Against RPI 76-100: 3-1
Against RPI 101+: 11-1

Good Wins: Tennessee, @ Tennessee (RPI: #15), Missouri (RPI: #36) , @ St. Mary's (RPI: #45)
Bad Losses: N-Western Kentucky (RPI: #126)

Current Tournament Projections
Lunardi: 3 seed in South Region, playing in New Orleans
Glockner (SI): 4 seed in South Region, playing in New Orleans

The Commodores have been floating between 13 and 12 on Lunardi's S-Curve for the past several weeks. A 12 means we are the 4th best 3-seed on the list, a 13 means we are the best 4-seed. This provides some insight as to how difficult it will be to reach a 2-seed. With no "marquee" games left barring a rematch with either UK or UT in the Conference Tournament, it may be difficult for Vandy to climb much higher than a 3-seed. However, a 2-0 week coupled with a nice run in the Conference Tournament could at least have us knocking on the door, and perhaps help us avoid a team like Maryland or Texas coming out of a high 6 seed.

UPDATE: Jerry Palm has Vanderbilt as a 4-seed with the Dores facing...Siena in New Orleans.

12 comments:

DorePosts said...

That's the scary thing. Great season, then running into Texas in the 2nd round...a former 17-0 team.

That draw is going to be crazy important. You either get a high mid-major or an under-performing stud.

Vandy-Montana said...

As long as we don't play Sienna or a Big East team until late in the tournament, I'll be happy.

Drubaru said...

I ain't scared of Siena. Bring it on. This season is all about redemption.

Stanimal said...

I'm with you Drubaru. This is a different team than the 07-08 squad, and we are more than capable of handling a team that likes to run, while also enduring a cold shooting night.

Vandy-Montana said...

I just say that because I think I'm still drunk from all of the double jack and cokes I had during that game...

Drubaru said...

It wasn't a good time, to be sure. But I'm hoping to springboard off this team/season into a new era of Vandy basketball. You know, one where we don't fear athletic/frenetic teams. One where we go deep into tournaments on a regular basis.

Andrew said...

Does anyone understand the computer formulas well enough to make a reasonable guesstimate of how much better we'd rank minus the Western Kentucky loss?

Andrew said...

One extra question: I was wondering if any college basketball wonk has ever modeled the effect of losing early in a conference tournament on team NCAA tournament performance.

Presumably, teams that win or come in second in conference tournaments tend to do better in the NCAA than those that lose in the first round.

But -- and this is a big but -- a lot of that is because conference tournament success tends to happen most for truly good teams.

What you'd need is a model that controlled for team quality and simply measured benefits of winning a conference tournament (confidence, higher NCAA seeding) against the cost (the physical toll of playing three games in three days right before NCAA).

I'm just curious if anyone has ever studies this issue. I cannot find any signs of it online, but that doesn't mean it isn't there.

Stanimal said...

That's a good question, and one I am completely ill-equipped to answer.

In terms of the selection committee, you have to think our body of work since that game has really made that "bad loss" a non-factor. 16-3 since that loss, with a season sweep of Tennessee, and two losses coming against a top five team. Can't imagine the committee will be saying "oh but they lost to Western Kentucky".

William D said...

My guess is that the SEC gets the shaft (all around) this year. Check out the selection committee members:

http://www.bracketography.com/selection-committee/

RetepAdam said...

Re: your latter question, Andrew - I would imagine that it entirely depends on the team and the circumstances around their conference tournament run. Certain teams need that confidence of knowing they can win a series of games against quality opponents when it counts before they can feasibly make a run for the national title while other teams just have that natural swagger and are better served by getting rest. Then, you also have teams that are going to perform the same way no matter what happens and probably flame out in the Elite 8 or Final Four (see: coached by Calipari, John).

laxman2001 said...

If we make it to the semifinal, I'd say we have a damn good chance of being a 3 seed.