Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Where will Byars be drafted?


NBAdraft.net, a website which produces mock drafts throughout the college and NBA seasons, currently has Derrick Byars set to be selected with the 12th pick. While things are far from certain in the mock draft regard, this website does have a tendency to be more accurate than most.

So what do you think Commodore Nation, Could Byars be a top 15 pick?

14 comments:

Seamus O'Toole said...

Byars could absolutely be a Top-15 pick. His stock has skyrocketed in the latter half of this season and especially the tourney. Dropping 27 on Wazzu and almost single-handedly sending his team to the Sweet 16 punched his ticket as a first-rounder I think.

Besides, not many players in the draft have the all-around profile that he does: big, strong, athletic; can shoot, drive, dish; plays well in one-on-one situations; a nasty defender. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find another small forward who can do all the things DB does as well as he does.

Certainly guys like Kevin Durant and Jeff Green will be more attractive to NBA teams, but other than them, who's shown himself to be better at his position than Derrick? Corey Brewer may put himself over the edge if he shines in the Final Four, but I think it would be a mistake to take him over Derrick not only because he's smaller in size and less willing to bang around (and not only because I am a Vandy homer-and-a-half) but also because he just seems more erratic to me with the ball in his hands. That's backed up by stats, too. Note the assist-to-turnover ratios of DB and Brewer:

DB - 116 ast / 80 to
CB - 107 ast / 90 to

I say DB is the #3 small forward in this draft. Regardless of where that puts him, it's pretty impressive.

Bobby O'Shea said...

I personally think the websites assessment of DB is dead on. He does have many tools on the offensive end, is an excellent defender, and does tend to settle or force outside shots. Still, 12 seems a little high. DB being drafted anywhere in the first round would be huge for Vanderbilt, especially if Shan has the kind of year next year that he is capable of.

Get excited Commie fans, in the next few years Vanderbilt could have more than a few pros in both the NFL (Earl Bennett, Jonathan Goff, at Jay Cutler at the very minimum), NBA (DB and Shan), and MLB (David Price and basically the rest of the staff, Pedro Alverez, and other guys that I don't even know about).

I said it's great, to be, a Vandy Commie...

Stanimal said...

Here's my take on this year's draft:

You have certain players which you cannot pass up (Durant, Oden, and Wright), and then you have a stream of players who will fill the needs of teams based on what those needs are. Therefore at this point I think determining where exactly Byars will go will be primarily based on the need of that particular team.

Still, I think there's no way he doesn't go in the first round of the draft. I think it's a pretty safe bet that he'll go in the first 20 picks and he stands a good chance of going in the first 15. But that all depends on how the NBA season ends up and which teams sit in that 10-15 range.

Of course, we at the VSL OBVIOUSLY know he SHOULD go in the top 15, but tell that to arguably the worst set of GMs in the history of the NBA.

Douglas James said...

I think DB's skills translate great to the NBA, he can score from anywhere, he can bring up the ball and he can defend, and with better talent around him he can have more freedom to use his athleticism. That being said I don't think DB will be a lottery pick (i'm hoping that the entire florida team enters, as well as Kansas and UNC's teams) I think DB has a chance to go in 15-20 range but will prob go in the early 20's

Seamus O'Toole said...

Obviously everything depends on teams' needs, but if we are saying Byars is the #3 SF coming out in this draft, then it would seem reasonable to deduce that he has a chance to be top-15.

Douglas James is right - with all the players leaving early, Byars may not go in the 'teens. But the question is: Who do you (rationally) pick over Byars?

I confess to not being as up-to-speed on NBA basketball as some (for what I believe are widely accepted reasons, I tend not to pay much attention until playoff time), so I don't know exactly what the lottery teams' most urgent needs are. But regardless, assuming you have a need at the 3 spot, I would ask the question: Who is better than DB to fill that spot?

There may be more than two other guys (Durant & Green) who have better profiles and more potential than Byars, but I am not aware of them. Someone please enlighten me.

Douglas James said...

A couple things. First the pro game is quite different then college. Big men and going to be the first guys off the boards (Centers and Power Fowards)...also recently teams are starting to realize they need a TRUE point guard instead of the hybrid (Star-bury, A.I, who don't create for the rest of the team). So i think SF is only the 4th option teams will go after. That is the reason i see DB dropping. In terms of SF i don't see many players ahead of him. Obviously Durant, Green, maybe Brewer (and maybe you can argue Al Thornton) plus who knows what will be coming out of Europe????

Seamus O'Toole said...

Point well taken about the difficulty of predicting European draft picks. Again, as far as teams' needs go, I'll defer to your judgment about which teams need which specific types of players. The fact remains that he's a legitimate contender for one of the top spots in the draft, and I think we all concur that he'll be a first-rounder - which, by the way, is great not just for him but for the school as well. Ups our visibility and sends a message to potential recruits that "you can come to Vandy and be a first-rounder." That message plays well in high schools these days...

Bobby O'Shea said...

Perhaps I am being too much of a homer here, but I really don't see why an NBA team would take Brewer over Byars. Derrick's ability to put a team on his back night in and night out is something that you can't teach. Brewer, while capable of that, has not done it on a consistent basis. Does the fact that he plays on a team that is probably better than the Boston Celtics help? Sure. But Brewer has, in my mind, been less of an impact player this year then he was in the past.

Byars' real competition would seem to come from oversees, since there doesn't appear to me, to be a SF in this draft that is definitely better than DB.

Of course, that's like...my opinion, man.

Seamus O'Toole said...

Other than Durant and/or Green?

Bobby O'Shea said...

Other than Durant...Jeff Green may have walked his way to a win against us, but I am not convinced that he is definitely better than DB

Seamus O'Toole said...

The Commie in me wants to agree with you. Just watching Green play though, it seems like while his outside shooting might not be as good as DB's, he can take it to the rack and finish as well as anyone I saw this year. Hence his high FG% (51% on the year). Also, his average points aren't as good as Derrick's, but you have to consider that he played on an offense that doesn't set up well for big offensive stats (whereas Vandy's offense does). But it's definitely close between them - hence why you and I touted the Byars-Green matchup as the best of the Sweet 16.

All told, for an NBA team Jeff Green may set up better as a PF.

chad said...

don't get me wrong, i think DB is amazing...but i think he'll be a second round pick.

Bobby O'Shea said...

Chad doesn't think DB is awesome...he is hoser.

Douglas James said...

Chad also didn't go to a Vandy Sweet 16 game because his balls are in a jar in KM's desk. You suck CHAD!