Thursday, March 3, 2011

Crunching the Numbers: Who Will Get the 2 Seed in the East?

RollBamaRoll has run the numbers. Their method:
To determine overall seeding probabilities, seeding was determined for each combination of possible results for this week's 7 remaining SEC games, with appropriate tiebreakers applied given the results. Each scenario was then weighted according to its probability based on individual game outcome probabilities supplied by as per their Thursday, 3/3, data.

The numbers shake out with Vanderbilt having 39.1% chance of capturing the bye, with UK leading the way with a 52.8% chance, Tennessee a 5.7% chance, and Georgia a 4.4% chance.

The information below is taken from my post Saturday night after Vanderbilt beat LSU:

How Vanderbilt can finish 2nd in the East:

The Commodores have to beat Florida. The only scenario where Vanderbilt can lose Saturday and earn a bye on the SEC Tournament is if Tennessee loses tonight at South Carolina. If there is a 4-way tie at 9-7 in the SEC East, Tennessee wins the tie-breaker because they swept Vanderbilt during the regular season. Thus (and this shouldn't be hard), Commodore fans need to cheer like hell for the Gamecocks of South Carolina at home. If Tennessee loses tonight, they are mathematically eliminated from finishing 2nd and earning the bye.

Even if Tennessee wins tonight, beating Florida is not enough to get Vanderbilt a day off in Atlanta. To win the bye, Vanderbilt needs to end the season at 10-6 tied with either Georgia, or Georgia and Kentucky. If Vanderbilt and Georgia end the season tied, the Commodores win. If Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Kentucky all end the regular season with the same record (either 9-7 or 10-6) the Commodores win the 3-way tie-breaker because they would finish the the regular season record of 3-1 against Georgia and Kentucky, while Kentucky would be 2-2 against Vanderbilt and Georgia, with the Dawgs finishing just 1-3 against the Wildcats and Commodores. Remember, a 4-way tie at 9-7 that includes Tennessee is devastating. With Vanderbilt's lose Tuesday, the only way they can win a tie-breaker that includes Kentucky is if Georgia finishes with the same record as the Commodores and the Wildcats. If, however, Kentucky and Vanderbilt finish tied for 2nd with Vanderbilt, Calipari's squad would win the tie-breaker because they would end the regular season with a record of 7-3 against the East, while Vanderbilt would be just 5-5 against the East.

Beware of Bubble Teams:

Alabama has lost 2 straight, and probably needs to win the SEC Tournament to get into the Dance. The Tide CERTAINLY can't earn an at-large bid if they lose to Georgia at home Saturday. Tennessee is still "in," but I'm not convinced that if they lose tonight, they won't have to win Sunday against Kentucky to feel secure with their invitation to the Tournament. Tennessee and Alabama's precarious state adds an interesting wrinkle to Vanderbilt's race for 2nd. Georgia and Alabama play at 12:30 on the SEC Network. This is a game Commodore fans need to closely follow:

If Georgia wins, the onus is then on Vanderbilt to beat Florida a few hours later to keep pace at 10-6. If both Vanderbilt and Georgia win, Commodore fans don't care who wins the Kentucky/Tennessee game: At 10-6, Vanderbilt controls the tie-breaker by ending the regular season tied with Georgia and Kentucky, and Tennessee couldn't match their 10-win total. If, however, Georgia loses, Vanderbilt fans should grit their teeth and pull for the Volunteers, because we lose the tie-breaker with the Wildcats.

Quick Summary: What We Want to Happen
1. Tennessee loses to South Carolina. Nothing helps us as much as Tennessee losing tonight.
2. Vanderbilt to beat Florida. A UT win tonight in Columbia forces a scenario where the Commodores have to win Saturday to earn a bye. A Tennessee loss, and we can still finish 2nd at 9-6.
3. Georgia beats Alabama: While Georgia winning is less important than us winning, it's still very important. A Georgia loss means Kentucky controls their own destiny.
4. Kentucky beats Tennessee/Tennessee beats Kentucky: As discussed above, who wins this match-up only matters if the 3 things that we really want to happen don't. If Tennessee loses tonight, we actually want them to beat Kentucky Sunday; if Tennessee wins tonight, however, Commodore fans only care about Sunday's result if we lose Saturday. Under the scenario just described, Vanderbilt's won't finish 2nd, and could finish as low as 5th.
This might be more confusing than helpful, but hopefully it gives you an idea of where the Commodores' interest lay ending into the final weekend of the season.


Vandy-Montana said...

Is there an obvious advantage (besides getting one more day to be healthy) to get the bye? I think I'd rather get the 3 seed, play Auburn and be sharp for Friday. A bye sometimes makes a team flat on Friday...

Anonymous said...

I dont care about the SEC tourni. Unless we loose to Auburn or LSU, its not going to effect of our NCAA tourni seeding. There isnt a team in the SEC that would lead to "head turning" resume win.

I think our tournament is such a joke because of the seeding the selection committee doesnt take it seriously.

I still dont want to see UT win so GO COCKS!

Anonymous said...

I like Kentucky winning the second seed Alabama is gonna whip Georgia at home on Senior day. Alabama needs a statement win and the Dawgs are on the choppin block. Florida wants a 3 seed in the tourney so they WILL beat Vandy at home. They will follow UK's game plan. The only difference about UF they have a big guy in the paint.