Sunday, December 13, 2009

Bobby's Western Kentucky Thoughts

As it turns out, having some time to reflect doesn't put last Friday's loss into any kind of perspective: it still hurts hurts like hell.

But as bad I felt walking home from the Sommet Center Friday night, that was nothing compared to reading Coach Stallings' comments after the game in today's Tennessean. where he characterized the team as "a broken mess." This of course begs the question, if the team is a broken mess, who's fault or faults is it?

To be sure, the Commodores are still 6-3, so their record isn't the problem. The issue is that this team actually appears to have regressed rather then progressed in their 9 games. Coach Stallings "wake-up call" to Jermaine and A.J. did not work. While the two combined for 20 points, at no point did either guy have a real impact. Beal had a chance to tighten things up hiting a lay-up that resulted in an and-1 that cut the lead to 4. But he missed the free throw thwarting Vanderbilt's last chance to come back.

Stallings' decision to sit his leaders didn't work, and one has to question whether he was cutting off his nose to spite his face by waiting so long to put these two in: especially A.J. I loved the intensity from Festus, and there is no doubt that he is progressing nicely, but Ezeli is not the scoring threat inside that either A.J. or Steve T. are. And, if Vanderbilt is going to be a successful team this season, they will have to get some scoring from the 5 position. A.J. is still the best option.

Watching A.J. last night, both while he was in the game and while he was sitting on the bench, his body language was defeated. In short, if benching him was designed to be a wake-up call, A.J. looked like he hit the snooze button.

Moving now to Jermaine. My feelings about Beal's play this season (especially in the last few games), have been pretty clear and the source of much disagreement from VSL's other editors and readers. Right now, he is not playing like a point guard. And that's fine, but if Jermaine is going to play the 2 than he needs to play the 2 and Stallings needs to have Tinsely bring the ball up and run the offense. Jermaine has not made his teammates better this season and the offense is stagnant when he is running the 1. Guys are standing around, and are understandably frustrated that the ball is not being distributed as much as it should. Looking just at A.J., he plays better when he has the ball on offense. It is not all Jermaine's fault that Ogilvy is not getting what I deem to be a sufficient number of touches, A.J. needs to want the ball more than he appears to. As a point of comparsion, Festus touched the ball on Vanderbilt's first 3 possessions last night. I think the fact that he was blocked once, scored on an offensive rebound, and missed a short jumper is immaterial. The offense was running through the low post, which is the way Vanderbilt will be the most successful.

Blame also has to fall on the shoulder of Kevin Stallings. Leadership emanates from the head coach and this team is talented enough that they shouldn't be as "broken" as the coach now alleges. A.J. sat too long, and as discussed above, it didn't appear he got his point across. The offense is stagnant with the exception of Jeffrey Taylor, who also happens to be the only player on the team who can actually create his own shot. John Jenkins had an awful game last night (the only time he hasn't scored all season), but I do think the impulse to play him as much as possible is the correct one. Jenkins' defensive vulnerability is a problem, but is certainly exacerbated by the team's complete lack or (or unwilingness to play) help defense.

Perhaps nothing encapsulates all that ails this Commodore team than the following stat: in the second half, Vanderbilt's defense forced WKU into taking bad shots with under 5 seconds left on the shot clock. All 6 times, Vanderbilt was unable to get a defensive rebound or limit WKU to just one shot. I don't remember exactly, but I'm pretty sure each time this happened, Vanderbilt was down 3 points or less. Which means, that if Vanderbilt had been able to finish the job after a good defensive possession, they might have been able to tie the game and shift momentum away from the Hilltoppers.

Alas, it never happened. Vanderbilt was just 1-9 in the second half from down town, shot just 60% (12-20) from the charity stripe and got out-rebounded 40-31. In an eye-opening piece from SportingNews.com's MIke DeCoursy noted that in their last 3 games, Vanderbilt's defense has allowed the opposition's leading scorer to best their average by 8 points. That's not a recipe for success.

I said it last night, and I'll say it again, there is no doubt that this 7-day break for finals is coming at a very opportune time. This team clearly needs some time away if they are going to come back together and play up to their potential. The sentiments of panic are not without merit, certainty Stallings' post-game comments would indicate that those impulses are not felt by the fans alone. What is needed is a "Toldeo-moment." After starting the 2006-07 season 1-3 including a loss at home to Furman 70-62, the team looked like they were going to fall at 1-4 to a lowly Toledo team when Vanderbilt came back after being down 92-87 with 2:27 to go in overtime. Then Senior Derrick Byars and Ross Neltner hit back-to-back 3's to take a 1 point lead. Byars ended the game with 28, Shan added 21, and Ross scored 20. They made plays and pulled out a game they looked out of. If they lose that game, they fall to 1-4 and it's possible they don't recover. Instead, they went on the win 7 straight (and losing their 8th to Appalachian State in Overtime of the San Juan Shootout Finals) and were a Jeff Green traveling call away from the Elite Eight. All is not lost. But this team is too good to be playing the way are. If they use these 7 days off to regain their confidence and "unbreak" whatever's broken, this team could do as successful as (if not more so) the 2006-07 Sweet 16 team. If they don't, then Vanderbilt fans will remember this as the "season that got away."

31 comments:

Chuck Heston said...

As many who follow this excellent blog, I'm a die hard Vandy basketball fan. I was a student during the Eddie Fogler era when the team finished the season nationally ranked and went to the Sweet 16. I constantly kick myself for not going to more games at Memorial when I had the chance. I was in the stands at the Meadowlands during the 2007 loss to G'town and in Tampa for the 2008 loss to Siena. At work, I endure constant snide comments for rooting for the Dores. As such, I have seen the ups and downs of the program over the years, and will offer my humble opinion.

First, we all knew that this was one of the most difficult non-conference schedules that Vandy's had in recent memory. As such, I believe most of us suspected that we would finish that schedule with 2-3 losses. My question to all of you is this, would you have preferred a cakewalk? When the non-conference schedule was easy in the past, didn't the team have 1-3 losses? As Bobby points out, that was the case in the 2006-2007 season, and the team went to the Sweet 16. In my opinion, all of the losses this year were to good teams that have a shot at making the Tournament. Playing a difficult non-conference schedule will pay dividends in the coming months, as well as in the Tournament selection process.

I believe that starting next Sat., Vandy will win the next 5 games, all of which are at home. That puts the team at 11-3 when FL (perhaps still ranked in the Top 25) comes to Memorial on 1/9. In my view the FL game will be a watershed moment. It will demonstrate whether the team has the heart to compete in the conf.

The good news at this point, is that this team has talent. It hasn't been beaten by teams with greater talent, Vandy has lost to teams that have played with more aggressiveness, desire and, yes, smarts (look at the patience exhibited by WKU in waiting for favorable matchups before driving to the basket).

When the season started, I reminded myself not to be discouraged because there would be losses. Vandy's had dispiriting losses before. It's time for a gut check by all the players to see how much they want a season to remember.

Colin said...

It's easy to be full of myself, when telling me that is the only rebutle and opinion you can express. I agree with Bobby's analysis, and I'm not sure what in AJ's past responses to adversity and criticism led K-stall to think benching him would be a good move. I think he thrives in friday's starting lineup where he actually gets some touches early.

Seamus O'Toole said...

I think everyone's been talking past each other on the Beal issue (shocking for a blog, I know). Basically from what I can tell, most of the arguments against Beal are that he's not being a distributor like a true point guard should. My point in response is that Stallings has been very explicit that he doesn't want Beal playing that sort of "true point guard" role this year. Jermaine is the best ball handler on the team, so yes he brings the ball up the floor, but it's Tinsley who CKS wants playing the role of distributor/facilitator because he's supposedly the best passer on the team (with Andre Walker being the second-best).

CKS wants Beal taking more shots this year, and it's obviously in part because of how much his shooting has improved over the past four years and how well he's been scoring in practice and in Australia. I think that's part of the reason why Beal has continued to shoot even though he hasn't been making as many as we'd like -- it's part of the game plan, not necessarily a selfish diversion.

So the main point is that most of the criticism against Beal is misplaced. If you think it's a bad idea for the guy who normally brings the ball up the court to be different from the guy you want feeding the ball into the post, then your beef is with Stallings, not Beal. We can have a debate about the CKS game plan, but it's certainly not a secret.

And on the subject of that game plan, you have to at least respect that there is a logic to it: Beal handles the ball better than anyone else, but Tinsley is not a true 2-guard. Since Jenkins is as pure of a shooting guard as this team has, CKS probably likes the idea of being able to sub out either Beal or Tinsley when Jenkins is in, allowing whichever of those two remains in the game (either Tinsley or Beal) to handle the point.

I think O'Shea is right to say that when we're talking about getting AJ the ball, a big part of it is that he's got to want the ball more. But if you're going to point a finger at your guards (both of whom have been disappointing in my opinion), you can't just blame one of them. Pretty much across the board, with the possible exception of Andre Walker and Jeff Taylor (at times), the level of effort and intensity has been completely sub-par. Like we've said again and again, we have to hope the next couple of weeks will give the team the breathing room they need to put together the pieces of the "broken mess."

Stanimal said...

I hate sports.

Anonymous said...

Beal is distributing the ball enough. The ball is passed several times to others more than once before the shot clock goes off. I think that oshea, colin have something against Beal and they put all this crap on the blog so he can read it because they all are reading it and second guessing themselves behind a bunch of want to be no it all don't know anything about the fundamentals of basketball nor how to play it.

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